Roskill Information Services Limited, London, United Kingdom, analysed the EU’s nickel requirements for EVs within the context on the global market over a twenty-year forecast horizon to 2040. Against this demand backdrop, Roskill critically assessed the EU’s internal supply capabilities and identified the risk of future shortages. The expected requirements for additional nickel are seismic for the market and there are multiple challenges to ensuring long-term supply security.
Some interesting insights from the study include:
- EU27 nickel demand from the automotive sector is forecast to total 560kt Ni by 2040, an increase of 543kt Ni from 17kt Ni in 2020.
- For nickel sulphate capacity, the core product required by batteries, the availability of suitable nickel feedstocks rather than processing capacity is the biggest “bottleneck” risk in the supply chain.
- To combat potential future supply shortages, it is estimated €7.5Bn worth of investments, in both new primary and recycling capacity, are required by the EU in order to meet nickel demand from EVs.
- A diversified approach to establishing nickel supply security within the EU27 is required via combination of domestic and foreign sourcing methods. This could be structured under a “procure and own” approach, where a circular economy is developed.
- There is an opportunity for the EU27 to minimise the risk of supply shortages via proactive and well directed policy. This will play a crucial role alongside the organic responsiveness of the free market.
- Three key headline areas were identified for policy to address: demand deflation, supply security, and research and development.
European nickel demand in electric vehicle sales by vehicle type, 2020-2040 (t Ni)
Roskill’s research study for the JRC
Source:batteryindustry
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