Advancements in cathodes over the past decade have played a crucial role in improving the energy density of electric vehicle batteries. However, the next wave of performance and cost gains in battery technology is expected to come from advancements in other components, including next-generation anodes, solid-state batteries, and sodium-ion cells.
The adoption of new battery materials is not only driven by their technical advantages, such as longer ranges and faster charging capabilities, but also by the recognition of the environmental impact and extraction challenges associated with current materials. Shifting away from materials with vulnerable supply chains, such as cobalt, has already been demonstrated with the transition to chemistries with higher nickel content in cathodes.
The rate at which emerging battery technologies are adopted will have a significant impact on the demand for key raw materials like graphite and lithium. BloombergNEF predicts that sodium-ion batteries can account for a significant portion of battery demand, particularly in the two- and three-wheeler segment. Sodium-ion batteries, which do not rely on lithium, have the potential to displace up to 7% of lithium demand by 2035. While this percentage may seem small, it represents more than half of the lithium demand from last year. This makes alternative technologies like sodium-ion batteries favorable as they can help alleviate the strain on lithium resources and mitigate potential supply shortages.
In a more aggressive scenario where sodium-ion batteries are adopted in all small vehicles, the displacement of lithium demand could reach 37% by 2035. However, achieving this would require a rapid expansion of the supply chain and manufacturing capabilities for sodium-ion cells. The scale required for sodium-ion batteries in 2035 would be more than twice the volume of lithium-ion batteries in 2023, a scale that has taken decades to reach.
On the anode side, there are expectations that technologies utilizing silicon, lithium, and hard carbon will begin to enter the battery market in the coming years. These technologies have the potential to displace 46% of graphite demand by 2035 compared to a scenario where the market does not shift away from graphite.
Silicon-based anode materials, in particular, offer impressive specific capacities of up to 4,000 milliampere-hours per gram, which is over 10 times higher than natural and artificial graphite. Challenges associated with silicon, such as volumetric changes during cycling, are being addressed through particle size reduction, the addition of conductive materials, and pre-lithiation treatments. Another promising contender for anodes is lithium-metal, which has an even higher theoretical specific capacity than silicon-based anodes and graphite. However, the use of lithium-metal anodes would require more advanced electrolytes, such as hybrid or solid-state electrolytes, adding to the demand for lithium.
In conclusion, the future of electric vehicle batteries lies in advancements in cathodes, anodes, and battery chemistry as a whole. The search for materials with improved performance, reduced environmental impact, and a stable supply chain is driving the exploration of alternatives such as sodium-ion batteries and silicon-based or lithium-metal anodes. These emerging technologies have the potential to significantly impact the demand for key raw materials and shape the future of the electric vehicle industry.
