According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in October 2024 is estimated to reach 1.4 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 58% and a month-on-month growth of 14%. This significant growth is driven by the nationwide rollout of trade-in subsidies, the surge in demand during the National Day Golden Week, and the stabilization in the stock and property markets that has revitalized consumer assets.
The NEV market in October successfully achieved the “Golden September, Silver October” sales effect. During the National Day holiday, consumer enthusiasm for car purchases surged, which was sustained by the dual influence of local trade-in policies and national scrappage renewal subsidies. The scrappage subsidy policy differentiates support levels, offering a ¥20,000 subsidy for NEVs, which is ¥5,000 higher than for conventional fuel vehicles. This policy advantage strongly guides consumers towards choosing NEVs. Research indicates that over 60% of trade-in customers opted for NEVs, further boosting NEV consumption momentum.
Survey data suggests that NEV penetration is expected to exceed 50% in October, and market shares for leading NEV manufacturers have expanded further. As of October 24, over 1.57 million applications for the scrappage subsidy have been received nationwide, and over 1.26 million applications for trade-in subsidies have been submitted, showing rapid growth. These figures demonstrate the significant market impact of the scrappage and trade-in policies, especially in driving strong growth in the entry-level battery electric vehicle (BEV) and narrow-scope plug-in hybrid markets.
The rising NEV penetration rate has also intensified market segmentation under the differential policy treatment between oil and electric vehicles. Data from the CPCA shows that in September 2024, manufacturers with monthly NEV sales exceeding 10,000 units accounted for 92.7% of total NEV sales in the passenger car market. Preliminary estimates indicate that these manufacturers will collectively sell 1.3 million units in October, pushing the nationwide wholesale volume of NEVs to 1.4 million units.
In summary, the NEV market in October has achieved rapid growth, propelled by supportive policies, holiday-driven consumer demand, and the positive impact of asset recovery in the stock market. This trend presents an optimistic outlook for China’s NEV industry, with market momentum expected to continue in the coming months.
